Often described as "surprising," the military offensive launched by Israel in June against Iranian military targets nevertheless fit into a decades-old modus operandi shaped by the so-called Begin Doctrine. According to the Begin Doctrine, the Jewish state must launch preemptive strikes to prevent the possession of weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear weapons, by countries that advocate its annihilation.
By: Jaime Spitzcovsky
The 1979 Iranian revolution overthrew the monarchy of Shah Reza Pahlavi, installed a theocracy, and transformed the country into a bedrock of anti-Americanism and rejection of democratic values. It began advocating the destruction of Israel, a pre-revolutionary ally and enemy, the United States.
Committed to expanding its influence in the Middle East, Iran, with a Persian and Shiite majority, also invested in the creation and financing of terrorist groups such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Palestinian Hamas, and the Yemeni Houthis. It also established influence in Bashar al-Assad's Syria and post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. Tehran dubbed the result of this expansionism the "axis of resistance."
The strategy for regional supremacy included another element: nuclear ambitions. The exposure of Tehran's secret plans emerged in August 2002, when an exiled Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, exposed the existence of then-clandestine nuclear structures, built, for example, without the knowledge of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Thus began one of the longest-lasting international crises of the 21st century, with the quest to prevent the Iranian theocracy from achieving atomic power, planned to put Israel's existence at risk, to challenge Saudi leadership in the Muslim world and to be able to destabilize the global economy, by having weapons to eventually close the Strait of Hormuz, in the Persian Gulf, route for at least 20% of the world's oil production.
Iran and the IAEA had already clashed in the early years of the crisis, between 2004 and 2005. In 2006, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1696, urging the Iranian theocracy to suspend uranium enrichment activities or face sanctions. Iran rejected the demand, and by 2010, several international economic sanctions had been approved.
With its economy weakened, Iran agreed to participate in negotiations responsible for the 2015 nuclear deal, led at the time by the Barack Obama administration. The basic principle of the treaty was to freeze Tehran's atomic program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
Critics of the agreement, including Benjamin Netanyahu, pointed to the fact that it was a freeze, not a dismantling of the nuclear program. They argued that after the 10-year term of the treaty, Iran could resume its atomic ambitions in a scenario of robust economic recovery.
Ignoring Iran's ballistic missile program and expansionist initiatives in the Middle East was also highlighted by critics as a serious flaw in the US-led deal, which still includes China, Russia, France, the UK and Germany.
The Barack Obama administration touted the agreement as one of its greatest diplomatic achievements and argued that the controversial initiative had prevented war. Its reasoning was that if Iran came close to obtaining an atomic bomb, Israel, in accordance with the Begin Doctrine, would attack Iran. Donald Trump, a staunch critic of his predecessor's diplomatic initiative, withdrew the US from the agreement in 2018. He reintroduced economic sanctions, a policy called "maximum pressure" on the Iranian regime.
Iran continued its challenging path. In March 2020, the IAEA reported that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium had nearly tripled since November 2019. And in 2021, the Iranian regime began enriching uranium (a process similar to purifying the material) to 60%, a level for which there is no civilian application.
When enriched to about 4%, uranium is used for electricity production. At 90%, it is used for atomic bombs.
According to some reports, the Iranian decision to definitively move forward with assembling an atomic bomb occurred after the massacre of October 7, 2023. Tehran, a supporter and financier of Hamas, believed it had to prepare for the Israeli response.
Israel and Iran clashed twice in 2024, using aerial bombardments, missiles, and drones. For the first time in decades, the enemies moved from a "shadow war"—a war fought through intelligence and sabotage operations—to a direct military confrontation.
Donald Trump's return to the White House in January of this year marked the beginning of a new chapter in the crisis. In a reversal of circumstances, in March, the president sent a letter to the Iranian regime proposing the opening of negotiations on the nuclear issue. The proposal, after much hesitation from Tehran, was accepted.
The following month, talks began in the Persian Gulf country of Oman. Trump issued an ultimatum: the negotiations had to be concluded within 60 days.
The negotiations dragged on for five rounds. Meanwhile, the IAEA released alarming reports. On May 31, it announced that Iran had expanded its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%. And,
On June 12, the UN agency approved a resolution, the toughest in 20 years, highlighting Iran's failure to comply with its nuclear obligations.
The next day, Israel launched its military offensive. Donald Trump then recalled having given Israel a 60-day deadline to reach an agreement and noted that Friday was "day 61."
There are reports that Israel, faced with the Iranian escalation, had planned an attack for May, but agreed to postpone it to give a chance to the diplomatic process championed by Trump. Faced with the failure of negotiations, the Israeli government opted to resort, for the third time in its history, to the Begin Doctrine.
The doctrine emerged in 1981, when Prime Minister Menachem Begin ordered the bombing of the Osirak nuclear reactor, under construction, in Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Dubbed Operation Opera, the attack decimated the Iraqi dictatorship's atomic ambitions and received heavy international criticism, including condemnation from the UN Security Council.
In 1990, Saddam Hussein ordered the invasion of Kuwait, and the following year, the US led a coalition of more than thirty countries responsible for the expulsion of Iraqi troops from the occupied territory. The scenario would have been quite different if Iraq had possessed a nuclear arsenal.
Former President Bill Clinton, in a 2005 interview, supported Operation Opera, in contrast to American criticism at the time of the attack. "Everyone talks about what the Israelis did at Osirak in 1981, which, I think, in retrospect, was a really good thing. You know, it stopped Saddam from developing nuclear power."
Prime Minister Menachem Begin, in an interview with the American TV program “Face the Nation” about a week after the action in Iraq, declared: “This attack will be a precedent for all future governments in Israel... Every future Israeli prime minister will act, in similar circumstances, in the same way.”
In 2007, Ehud Olmert ordered Operation Orchard, which involved bombing a nuclear facility in Syria built with North Korean support. Just as against Iran, the Begin Doctrine came into effect.
Jaime Spitzcovsky, a contributor to Folha de S.Paulo, was the newspaper's correspondent in Moscow and Beijing.
